Vitaly Ilinich

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Majority of water reservoirs are located in conditions of torrential floods. Difficulty of flow control by such water reservoirs consists in next: different requirements can take place in same within-year intervals during different years. Irrigation requests the big water storage in reservoir, but during the same time a low water level of the reservoir is more preferred for safe drafts during possible catastrophic flood. Accordingly, main aim of the research is search of profitable and safe rules of flow control by water reservoir. The aim has required of solving of next problems: 1) to choose a duration of within-year interval for simulative models of reservoir operation; 2) to develop stochastic model of the flow; 3) to develop the logical conditions for flow control by water reservoir with help of short-term forecasting of the flow; 4) to check the developed flow control rules with help of simulation of reservoir operation. Special analysis was made for the choice of duration of internal year time interval for simulative model of water reservoir operation. The analysis took into consideration: possible duration of catastrophic precipitation, concentration time, possibility to obtain accurate flow forecasting and accurate stochastic parameters for the within-year interval. Stochastic model of the flow have been made on the base of Markov chains. Logical conditions of the flow control rules were chosen for every within-year interval according to probabilities of draft from reservoir and his storage for the next interval. The obtained flow control rules were checked with help of the simulative model of water reservoir operation on the base of the modeled artificial long time series according to observed 30 year’s rank.


Session S8-01, Flood Control through Use of Water Reservoirs I



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