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This study is conducted to develop a mathematical model for typical sewage discharge area like residential area, commercial district and institutional area. An approach of time series analysis is applied to build the model involving model selection, parameter estimation, simulation and prediction. The description of sewage discharge process is divided into two parts: Periodic change and stationary random process. Periodic change process is simulated by harmonic analysis which composites a number of trigonometric function together. Stationary random process is described using Stationary time series including six steps: stationary test of the series; calculation of autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function for the series; identification of model type; determination of the model order; estimation of model parameters; verification of the model. In this paper daily variation process models for Sewage discharge of residential areas are built using this method. The numerical results show that the present method is effective and produce good agreements with the measured curve. Sewage discharge simulation of other areas like commercial area or institutional area could take the same way. This model could be used as a tool for uncertainty analysis of sewage discharge predicting. And the model also could be coupled with pipe flow model like SWMM to build sewage discharge analysis system in urban scale.


Session R36, Modeling of Urban Flooding II



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