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Population growth and urbanisation are creating a big need to improve the planning processes and management of urban infrastructures. Urban drainage networks are one of the vital services needed for any urban area, modelling its growth and expansion is a challenge because of the dynamics of the system. This work describes the integration of a cellular automata model, to simulate urban land use changes, with algorithms to deduct the future layout of the drainage network and with SWMM 5.0 as the hydraulic engine to assess the performance of the drainage systems in the current condition and in the future. The model was built using Dinamica EGO to simulate the land use changes in the future. The model was setup using a set of two land use maps for the municipality of Birmingham in the UK, for the year 2000 and 2006. The model was connected with the NSGAII algorithm to handle the calibration process. Once the model is calibrated three scenarios of future population growth and urbanization are run for the year 2040. The future generated map is then used to classified and cluster the areas of new developments that are suitable to expand the drainage network. Two algorithms are used to predict the future layout of the network. Once the new layout of the network is defined, the system can be connected to the existing urban drainage network and the performance of the expanded network can be assessed. To upgrade the system several rehabilitation strategies are tested to improve the capacity of the system. The integration of these models allows the exploration of several planning scenarios, in this way is possible to help the decision makers with tools and methods to anticipate bottlenecks and solutions in the urban drainage system.


Session S10-01, Special Session: Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Data and Methods for Flood Resilience in Urban Areas



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