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Geographically located between the Andaman Sea and the South China Sea, the water level in the Malacca Strait is indirectly driven by the tide of the two oceans: Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. With use of numerical models the tidal variations should be well represented in this area. However, when the model’s tidal representation is compared to the actual measurement of local coastal tidal gauges, the observed water level difference amount to more than +/- 30 cm. Based on a 15 years long time series of water level residuals (between 1992 to 2006), it is found that an annual seasonal trend in the residue may be the cause of larger and more complicated physical mechanisms that could not be properly resolved in the 2D barotropic model. For forecasting purposes, it is important to identify and quantify the seasonally varying residue of the model. This study attempts to determine the residue variation and characterize associated uncertainties by determining the daily averaged residues by unique probability distributions on monthly basis. The result of this study will provide a comprehensive error (residue) budget for the oceanographic model of the area applied in forecasting mode.


Session R24, Coastal and Estuarine Modeling II



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