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The world is experiencing a countless number of impressive and devastating floods causing a range of health impacts and risks with hundreds of thousands of people losing their lives or becoming homeless in a matter of hours. EU Floods Directive requires the developing of flood hazard maps, which may include information on hydrological and hydrodynamics characteristics of vulnerable regions, i.e. inundated areas and river flow discharges. Prediction of flood events can accurately be achieved by applying mathematical modelling for describing rainfall-runoff phenomena as well as surface waters hydrodynamics. Moreover, reservoirs can be properly operated in order to minimize flood events since extreme rainfall events can be anticipated. In this work a platform (FEWS-LIMA) for flood forecasting was implemented with Delft-FEWS software to the Portuguese river Lima basin. This platform integrates SOBEK Sacramento hydrological model, SOBEK rivers hydrodynamic models that work together in predicting river hydrodynamics behaviour, and a comprehensive hydrological database. The calibration of these models was achieved using historical river flow discharges data in different rainfall events and considering the existence and inexistence effect of upstream river dams operation. Models predictions use rainfall time series as input data obtained from meteorological forecasting services, based on atmospheric models. The performance of FEWS-LIMA platform was verified in real rainfall events, using a backcasting approach to four flood events occurred in the years 2006, 2010, and 2011 in order to demonstrate the accuracy of the modelled processes. In addition, a forecasting event was also considered in order to show the applicability of this methodology in future situations. It was verified, in this case study, that the obtained results have a high correlation to the actually measured typical flood hydraulic parameters.


Session R38, Decision Support and Information Systems for Flood Events



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