Document Type
Presentation
Publication Date
8-1-2014
Abstract
Modeling of flow was made for Central Iran conditions on the example of river Hablerud where water reservoir is planning. Forms of dangerous flood hydrographs are very different because of different precipitation regimes. Practically it is impossible obtain typical design hydrograph for the reservoir routing. The storm precipitations and consequent floods can take place during any within-year interval, when water storage can be different with different probability. Therefore there is necessity to research a big amount of scenarios respecting possible combinations of flood hydrographs and water reservoir storages before floods for estimation of probability of damage. Observed hydrographs (30 years) can not represent base of all possible scenarios for reservoir routing of the requiring small probability. Consequently an aim of the represented research is modeling of long time series (1000 years) of daily discharges, which possesses a big variability but has approximately same statistic characteristics like observations. Method of Monte-Carlo according to fragment realization has been chosen among methods of stochastic simulation. At first annual discharge were simulated according to probabilistic curve, which was determined on the base of statistic parameters calculated with help of annual observed water discharges data. Then the simulated annual discharges were multiplied on ordinates of fragments. Every fragment was represented by 365 coefficients of observed daily water discharges of concrete year. Numbers of fragment was chosen by casual image. The choice of fragment was depended on value of annual discharge according to cluster analyses. The choice of algorithm of simulation was made on the base of comparison between month statistic parameters of the observed values and of the simulated values.
Comments
Session S8-02, Flood Control through Use of Water Reservoirs II