Publications and Research

Document Type


Publication Date

Summer 7-3-2014


This paper examines forecasting accuracy of state revenue forecasting for 50 states using data published on the National Association of State Budget Officer’s (NASBO) website ( The data shows four categories of revenue: sales tax, corporate income tax, personal income tax, and all other (as a residual from total taxes). It shows some evidence that forecast bias reflects a hedge against uncertainty; however, there is also evidence that there is a counterbalancing preference to find the money needed to provide the services demanded.


This paper was presented at the International Symposium on Forecasting in Rotterdam in 2014



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