State Revenue Forecasting Accuracy

Authors

Dan Williams, CUNY Bernard M Baruch CollegeFollow
Joseph Ononchie, CUNY Bernard M Baruch CollegeFollow

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

Summer 7-3-2014

Abstract

This paper examines forecasting accuracy of state revenue forecasting for 50 states using data published on the National Association of State Budget Officer’s (NASBO) website (www.nasbo.org). The data shows four categories of revenue: sales tax, corporate income tax, personal income tax, and all other (as a residual from total taxes). It shows some evidence that forecast bias reflects a hedge against uncertainty; however, there is also evidence that there is a counterbalancing preference to find the money needed to provide the services demanded.

Comments

This paper was presented at the International Symposium on Forecasting in Rotterdam in 2014