Publications and Research

Document Type


Publication Date

Summer 7-16-2021


Lakes Azuei (LA) and Enriquillo (LE) on Hispaniola Island started expanding in 2005 and continued to do so until 2016. After inundating large swaths of arable land, submerging a small community, and threatening to swallow a significant trade route between the Dominican Republic and Haiti; worries persisted at how far this seemingly unstoppable expansion would go. The paper outlines the approach to a look forward to answer this question vis-à-vis climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It uses numerical representations of the two lakes, and it examines how the lakes might evolve, deploying three different forcing mechanisms: that of weather and drift due to climate change, that of extreme events, such as hurricanes, and that of anthropogenic impacts, such as unintended water transfers between adjacent watersheds. Runs are executed Monte Carlo style using 11 different forcing combinations, each with a thousand instances of results generated by varying the numerous parameters that define the numerical models. The results are necessarily not precise and vary significantly as the forecast horizon expands, creating expanding envelopes of outcomes. Although some outcomes suggest a continued rise of the lake levels, most scenarios yield a reduction and recession of the lake waters.



To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.