This report examines makes estimates about the Latino Population for 2020—in the United States, Los Angeles, New York City, Miami, and Houston—that differ dramatically from those published by the Census Bureau.
This report uses population growth rates calculated from the raw data found in the American Community Survey (ACS) five-year files for each year between 2010 and 2019 and 2015 to 2019 to project ‘assumed’ population totals for 2020. It uses the American Community Survey PUMS (Public Use Microdata Series) data for all years released by the Census Bureau and reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa, (https://usa.ipums.org/usa/index.shtml). See Public Use Microdata Series Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2017.
These data indicate that the Latino population of the U.S. was undercounted in 2020 by 0.8% using the growth rates between 2010 and 2019 to project the 2020 Latino population: and 0.4% using the rate between 2015 and 2019. This is significantly lower than the 4.99% estimated by the Census Bureau using a different methodology For Los Angeles, the Latino undercount was estimated at 1.4% using the population growth rates between 2010 and 2019 and 1.0% using the growth rate derived from the 2015-19 data. For New York City, the Latino undercount was estimated at 1.8% using the population growth rate between 2010 and 2019 and 1.1% using the growth rate derived from the 2015-19 data. For Miami, the Latino undercount was estimated at 1.0% using the population growth rate between 2010 and 2019 and 1.4% using the growth rate derived from the 2015-19 data. For Houston, the Latino undercount was estimated at 3.9% using the population growth rate between 2010 and 2019 and 2.7% using the growth rate derived from the 2015-19 data. There is no way to statistically determine why the Houston, Texas undercount was significantly higher than in the other three cities or the whole United States.
Available for download on Wednesday, June 01, 2022
Arts and Humanities Commons, Demography, Population, and Ecology Commons, Latin American Studies Commons, Quantitative, Qualitative, Comparative, and Historical Methodologies Commons, Race and Ethnicity Commons