Introduction: This study examines the potential impact of the Latino electorate on nine key swing states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia) for the 2012 presidential election.
Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates.
Results: Assuming that current polling data are somewhat accurate, Latino voter turnout and the direction of the Latino vote may not be as meaningful in determining the outcomes of the 2012 presidential election in each state. However, if support for Obama in these states shifts even slightly among other racial/ethnic groups, both Latino voter turnout and the direction of the Latino vote could potentially impact the outcome of the election.
Discussion: Each swing state is comprised of different demographics, and as such warrants different discussion points for pundits and stakeholders. See the report for more information on specific states.
Calcagno, J. (2012). The Latino Vote and Obama’s Reelection Possibilities A Quantitative Assessment Of its Possible Impact on Nine Swing States. New York, NY: Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies at the CUNY Graduate Center. Retrieved from http://clacls.gc.cuny.edu/files/2013/10/The-Latino-Vote-A-Quantitative-Assessment-of-its-Possible-Impact-on-Nine-Swing-States.pdf