Publications and Research
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
6-2023
Abstract
Purpose: Current evidence suggests volatile temperatures are becoming more common because of climate change and can be expected to become even more frequent in the future. By focusing on recent temperature variability, we attempt to estimate one important dimension of the impact of climate change on violent crime. We also explore whether sudden upward temperature anomalies have stronger positive impacts on violent crime in the coldest months of the year, as routine activities are likely to change more drastically during this period.
Methods: This study explores the association between sudden temperature anomalies (both upward and downward) and the daily incidence of homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault in 28 U.S. cities from 2015 to 2021 using multivariable two-way fixed-effects negative binomial panel regression models.
Results: We find that temperature volatility is significantly associated with the incidence of violence. Upward departures in temperature are associated with increases in robbery and homicide, while downward departures are associated in the opposite direction. These associations are more robust in winter, with unexpectedly warmer winter weather associated with larger increases in robbery.
Conclusions: Results support the hypotheses and routine activities theory. We discuss the findings in the context of the under-explored criminological consequences of climate change.
Comments
Kevin Wolff's ORCID -- 0000-0001-5383-2976
This work was originally published in the Journal of Criminal Justice.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2023.102090