International Trade Continues to Excel as the Global Economy Stalls: A Review of U.S and New York Customs District Trade through August 2011

Authors

Eugene Spruck

Document Type

Working Paper

Publication Date

12-1-2011

Abstract

In this paper, Eugene Spruck, a Weissman Center Fellow who served as the Chief Economist of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey for more than a decade, reviews U.S. and New York Customs District for the first eight months of 2011. His analysis shows that U.S. international trade continued to grow at double digit rates in 2011 even as the U.S. economy stalled and the risks to the global recovery increased dramatically. The value of U.S. two-way international trade increased 17.3 percent through August 2011, to more than $2.4 trillion. Trade through the New York region increased by 19.1 percent during the same period. The continuation of double digit increases in U.S. international trade was somewhat surprising given weak consumer spending and confidence that resulted in GDP growth under 1 percent in the first half of 2011. Additionally, the global economy was challenged by Japan’s earthquake and Tsunami, political uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, and the Euro Zone sovereign debt crisis. The risks from the European debt crisis to the international banking system remain the greatest overhang threatening the global economic recovery. The International Monetary Fund, in September 2011, updated its global economic forecasts lowering economic growth through 2012 stating that the global economy is in a dangerous new phase. Global economic growth is projected to slow to 4 percent through 2012, down from over 5 percent growth in 2010. Advanced economies are expected to expand by only 1.5 percent in 2011 and 2.0 percent in 2012. If the Euro Crisis affects Asia’s economic growth through trade and finance linkages, the global economy could slow even further, according to Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director.

Comments

This paper was originally published as Vol. 2 No. 2 in the WCIB Occasional Paper Series. https://zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/faculty-research/centers-institutes/weissman-center-international-business/occasional-paper-series/