Modeling COVID-19 spread in small colleges

Authors

Riti Bahl, Bard College
Nicole Eikmeier, Grinnell College
Alexandra Fraser, Bard College
Matthew Junge, CUNY Bernard M Baruch CollegeFollow
Felicia Keesing, Bard College
Kukai Nakahata, CUNY Bernard M Baruch College
Lily Reeves, Cornell University

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

8-18-2021

Abstract

We develop an agent-based model on a network meant to capture features unique to COVID-19 spread through a small residential college. We find that a safe reopening requires strong policy from administrators combined with cautious behavior from students. Strong policy includes weekly screening tests with quick turnaround and halving the campus population. Cautious behavior from students means wearing facemasks, socializing less, and showing up for COVID-19 testing. We also find that comprehensive testing and facemasks are the most effective single interventions, building closures can lead to infection spikes in other areas depending on student behavior, and faster return of test results significantly reduces total infections.

Comments

This article was originally published in PLOS ONE, available at https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255654.

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.