Date of Award

Spring 5-7-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Arts (M.A.)

Department

Political Science

Language

English

First Advisor

Sevdenur Koru

Abstract

This thesis examines the conditions under which the United States would recognize an independent Québec diplomatically and how it would maintain stable institutional relations with it. It also examines the extent of Québec’s paradiplomatic network’s reach in the United States, and how it influences the relationship and the probability of recognition. Based on a qualitative case study using process tracing and conceptual analysis, the thesis proposes that the institutional density of the Québec-US relationship increases the probability of functional continuity and, potentially, of programmatic cooperation after independence. However, this would not lower the significant political, legal, and strategic US thresholds needed for official recognition. The analysis shows that Washington would first consider continental stability, North American security, trade continuity, and a Québec-Canada settled agreement before considering recognition. Québec’s institutional, administrative, and relational capacities are sufficiently developed to remain a likely manageable and relevant partner to the US, although separation is not a desired political outcome for Americans. Québec’s paradiplomatic network is a tool that will facilitate practical relations with the US, but diplomatic recognition remains conditional on negotiations, proven stability, and strategic integration to continental frameworks.

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