The Diplomacy of Contention: The Case of Venezuela

Author

Lina Maria Fajardo Vallejo, CUNY Graduate CenterFollow

Date of Degree

9-2025

Document Type

Doctoral Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy

Program

Political Science

Advisor

Stephanie Golob

Committee Members

Peter Romaniuk

Susan Woodward

Subject Categories

Comparative Politics | International Relations | Latin American Studies

Keywords

Diplomacy, Contentious Actors, Venezuela, Resistance to Autocratization, Brokerage, International Relations, International Recognition

Abstract

The dissertation introduces the concept of the “Diplomacy of Contention,” which is defined as a hybrid and informal practice that blends elements of state and non-state diplomacy as part of a contentious actor’s resistance strategy. It addresses the underexplored role of political oppositions as diplomatic agents and their international strategies of resistance to autocratization. The research asks: Under what conditions and how do political opposition groups in autocracies or states undergoing autocratization processes utilize an international strategy to engage foreign actors? It also seeks to identify the types of actors they interact with, the practices they implement, and the factors that may contribute to the success or failure of their diplomatic efforts.

The study proposes an analytical framework that conceptualizes the diplomacy of contention as a political and communicative process aimed at persuading and informing foreign audiences through the employment of representation and communication practices that combine elements of state and non-state diplomacy. This process consists of three consecutive stages: 1) the decision to adopt an international strategy; 2) its implementation; and 3) the acceptance of the claim by the foreign audience. Two main factors, repression and regime uncertainty, are identified as potential triggers for political oppositions to engage in international activity. The implementation phase highlights the crucial role of brokers and the different types of activities they perform in mediating between the political opposition and the targeted audiences. It distinguishes between direct (face-to-face meetings, foreign tours) and indirect (social media, news networks) means of delivery, and direct (authorized agents such as ambassadors) and indirect (unauthorized third-party agents) representatives. A typology of brokers is proposed, including Diplomatic Brokers, International Brokers, Media Brokers, and Accidental Brokers. Finally, the target’s acceptance of the message is influenced by their assessment of the claim and the international political opportunity structure (IPOS).

The argument is developed through a case study of the political opposition to the Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela from 2013 to 2024. The research employs process tracing to conduct a longitudinal case study of their international strategy and an in-depth examination of the events leading to the declaration of the interim government in 2019 and efforts to gain international recognition. Additionally, computational methods are used to analyze Juan Guaidó’s Twitter network from May 2018 to April 2019.

Key empirical findings indicate that the Venezuelan political opposition’s activities evolved from uncoordinated, reactive actions to a clear set of objectives, including reaffirming the legitimacy of the National Assembly, applying pressure on the Maduro regime, securing humanitarian aid, and attaining international recognition for the interim government. As the interim government dissolved, the opposition’s international activity focused on procuring electoral guarantees for the 2024 presidential election. The study also finds that the declaration of the interim government was a result of a careful plan involving intensive diplomatic efforts to secure international backing. Its recognition by around 60 states and entities, while in some cases was accompanied by legal consequences, in others was meant as an expression of political support. International brokers were crucial in advancing the political opposition’s cause, particularly in contexts where access was limited. The research also finds that Juan Guaidó primarily used Twitter to communicate with domestic audiences and construct domestic legitimacy, showcasing international support rather than directly interacting with foreign actors or persuading adversaries.

The dissertation makes significant contributions to international relations theory, diplomatic studies, and comparative politics research. It offers a conceptualization of the diplomacy of contention and a typology of brokers, enhancing the understanding of how diplomacy can be used not only to represent the state but also to challenge it. It shows how the diplomacy of contention simultaneously reproduces and challenges international norms, changing the boundaries of what is acceptable and normal in international affairs. Empirically, it provides a detailed reconstruction of the Venezuelan political opposition’s international efforts over more than a decade, and an account of the politics of international recognition in the case of the interim government

Recommended Citation

Fajardo Vallejo, Lina Maria, "The Diplomacy of Contention: The Case of Venezuela" (2025). CUNY Academic Works.
https://academicworks.cuny.edu/gc_etds/6397