Risk, Uncertainty, and Doubt: Characteristics of Entrepreneurial Judgment

Author

Maria-Irene Angelidis, CUNY Graduate CenterFollow

Date of Degree

9-2025

Document Type

Doctoral Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy

Program

Business

Advisor

Romi Kher

Committee Members

Scott Newbert

Karl Lang

Subject Categories

Business Administration, Management, and Operations | Entrepreneurial and Small Business Operations

Keywords

Risk, uncertainty, doubt, judgement, entrepreneurship

Abstract

Without uncertainty, there is no entrepreneurship (McMullen & Shepherd, 2006). Yet, despite its centrality to the field, uncertainty remains notoriously difficult to define in precise terms (e.g., Langlois & Cosgel, 1993; Townsend et al., 2024). In general, uncertainty refers to a kind of extrapolation problem – the absence of knowledge arising from the potential for change (Ramoglou, 2021). However, depending on the stream, uncertainty may refer to futures that are unknown but knowable (i.e., mere ignorance), others that are truly unknowable, or even to the state of disbelief in one’s own intuition of the future which is elsewhere referred to as doubt (McMullen & Shepherd, 2006; Ramoglou, 2021; Townsend et al., 2024). Thus, the field resists coherence (Locke & Golden-Biddle, 1997) to the extent parallel streams adopt conflicting definitions of uncertainty. To reconcile this tension, this dissertation sets out to [1] disentangle definitions of uncertainty and [2] decompose how individuals bear risk and uncertainty and experience doubt across settings.

To this end, in this dissertation, I begin with an integrative review of uncertainty in entrepreneurship research. Depending on the definition, different assumptions about the nature of reality, the decision logic, and the emergence of doubt result. By surfacing assumptions and integrating definitions, I identify directions for future research. Second, I conduct an empirical examination of the real risk- and uncertainty-bearing behaviors entrepreneurs undertake across countries and investigate for whom these behaviors are most effective. Finally, I conduct a cross-country empirical study of the political extremism that some entrepreneurs may adopt to reduce doubt (van Prooijen & Kourwen, 2019) and facilitate action (Lipshitz & Strauss, 1997).

In summary, in this dissertation, I unpack three central constructs associated with Knight’s (1921) foundational work that have, over time, become conflated with each other (Langlois & Cosgel, 1993; Ramoglou, 2021; Townsend et al., 2024). In so doing, I set out to reconcile seemingly contradictory claims resulting from the conflation, integrate parallel research streams, and take one small step towards clarifying the uncertainty construct in entrepreneurship research.

Recommended Citation

Angelidis, Maria-Irene, "Risk, Uncertainty, and Doubt: Characteristics of Entrepreneurial Judgment" (2025). CUNY Academic Works.
https://academicworks.cuny.edu/gc_etds/6406