Publications and Research
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
12-16-2024
Abstract
This study examines direct observations of outdoor routine activities to investigate the pathways through which temperatures shape crime. Daily administrative records of crime, weather, and outdoor activity were assembled from 2015 to 2019 in New York City. Mediation analysis (with bootstrapped standard errors) reveals that alterations in routine activities account for a statistically significant, yet modest, proportion of temperature’s relationship with homicides, shootings, assaults, larceny, and public consumption violations. The comparable mediation effects across violent and nonviolent crimes support routine activity theory as an explanatory framework for understanding temperature's impact on crime. The measures introduced here offer a novel approach for testing the theory and suggest other potential applications.
Comments
This is a preprint. The final version of this article has been accepted for publication in The British Journal of Criminology, published by Oxford University Press in December 2024. The version of record is available online at https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/azae091
Wolff ORCID: 0000-0001-5383-2976