Publications and Research
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
Summer 2026
Abstract
Guided by Becker’s side-bet theory, this study examines turnover intentions among officers in the New York City Police Department by assessing pension investment and affective commitment as accumulated organizational “side bets,” alongside job satisfaction, perceived organizational support, and workplace conditions. Data was drawn from an online survey of 1,454 officers. Population weights based on gender, race/ethnicity, and rank were applied to improve representativeness. Weighted multinomial logistic regression models examined predictors of turnover intention, while second-difference tests of average marginal effects (AMEs) assessed whether workplace factors operated differently across tenure groups. Results indicate that perceived organizational attitudes and workplace conditions significantly predict turnover intention. Organizational pride, assignment fairness, and supervisor fairness were associated with lower turnover-oriented outcomes, whereas workload, boredom, organizational indifference, and occupational risk increased turnover intention. Tenure demonstrated the most theoretically informative pattern. Relative to early-career officers, mid-career officers exhibited compressed turnover intentions, suggesting accumulated occupational investments may constrain mobility and stabilize organizational attachment. AME analyses further revealed that fairness perceptions, work-life balance, and compensation were especially influential among early-career officers, while boredom, organizational indifference, and limited opportunities became more influential among late-career officers after pension eligibility. Findings provide partial support for Becker’s Side-Bet Theory and suggest that turnover intention varies meaningfully across career stages. Results highlight the importance of career-stage-specific retention strategies focused on organizational fairness, engagement, and professional fulfillment throughout the occupational life course.
Comments
Quick, K. M., & Wolff, K. T. (2026). Breaking point: Exploring side bets, support, and pension investment as predictors of turnover intention in urban policing. Journal of Criminal Justice, 104, 102672.