Publications and Research
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
11-8-2018
Abstract
Arab uprisings paved the way for democratic elections in the Middle East and
North Africa region. Yet countries in this region, except for Tunisia, were not
able to maintain further democratization. Tunisia, regardless of economic
turbulence and security problems, managed to hold its second parliamentary
elections in October 2014, and Ennahda, the party of the popular Islamist
movement, could not keep mass support. A large number of studies have
examined the rise of the Islamist parties as their electoral success in the post-
Arab Uprisings elections by focusing on their organizational strength as well
as their social services. However, the social basis of secular parties in the
region has been overlooked in the democratization literature. In this study,
four competing arguments, religious–secularism cleavage, nostalgia for the
old regime, negative campaign targeting Islamists, and retrospective voting,
are considered as the key determinants of citizens’ party choices. By using
original election survey data, this study asserts that secular Nidaa Tounes
derived its support from secular people, who, at the same time, sympathized
with the old regime and disfavoured Islamists.